martedì 14 febbraio 2012

E mo' tocca a Moody's calare la scure sull'Europa...

Dopo Standard & Poor's
mo' tocca a Moody's calare la scure sull'Europa...
Naturalmente viene downgradata anche l'Italia...
V'immaginate adesso come inizierà a starnazzare la corrente nazional-populista-complottista?
E la procura di Trani che farà?
Dopo i controlli agli uffici e l'indagine su Standard & Poor's...
adesso internerà preventivamente tutti i dipendenti della sede italiana di Moody's?...
Moody's just downgraded the sovereign debt ratings on Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.
They also issued negative outlooks for Austria, France, and UK who are all Aaa rated.

From Moody's:

London, 13 February 2012 -- As anticipated in November 2011, Moody's Investors Service has today adjusted the sovereign debt ratings of selected EU countries in order to reflect their susceptibility to the growing financial and macroeconomic risks emanating from the euro area crisis and how these risks exacerbate the affected countries' own specific challenges.

Moody's actions can be summarised as follows:

- Austria: outlook on Aaa rating changed to negative

- France: outlook on Aaa rating changed to negative

- Italy: downgraded to A3 from A2, negative outlook

- Malta: downgraded to A3 from A2, negative outlook

- Portugal: downgraded to Ba3 from Ba2, negative outlook

- Slovakia: downgraded to A2 from A1, negative outlook

- Slovenia: downgraded to A2 from A1, negative outlook

- Spain: downgraded to A3 from A1, negative outlook

- United Kingdom: outlook on Aaa rating changed to negative

L'EFSF invece per ora mantiene sia la tripla AAA che l'outlook stabile.
Infatti conta solo "l'elite" europea per assegnare il rating al fondo salva stati....
Moody's: EFSF's Rating Is Sensitive To Changes In Ratings Of Germany, France And The Netherlands [Dow Jones]
EFSF's AAA Rating Confirmed, Moody's Says [DJ]

Faccio notare che una prima palpatina all'innosidabile tripla-fantasy AAA dell'UK è stata data...
Per Moody's..... l'outlook della Perfida Albione passa a negativo
dunque, stampante o non stampante della BoE, se i fondamentali dell'UK dovessero peggiorare, perderanno sta benedetta tripla AAA.
Moody's expects UK government gross debt-to-GDP ratio peaking at just under 95% in 2014 or 2015, before gradually declining thereafter.....but that's higher than most AAA, thus negative outlook....
Naturalmente i sostenitori del complottismo anglo-americano contro l'Europa e contro l'Euro diranno che questa mossetta contro l'UK serve solo a fare un po' di astuto depistaggio....:-)
Persino la mitica Bank of England viene messa sotto osservazione per un prossimo taglio della sua tripla AAA: che ardito depistaggio da parte di questi perfidi complottardi anglo-americani!....:-)
....Moody's has today also changed the outlook on the Aaa debt rating of the Bank of England to negative, in parallel with its decision to change the outlook on the UK's sovereign rating.
Moody's changes the outlook on the United Kingdom's Aaa rating to negative

Moody's Investors Service has today changed the outlook on the United Kingdom's Aaa government bond rating to negative from stable.

The key drivers of today's action on the United Kingdom are:

1.) The increased uncertainty regarding the pace of fiscal consolidation in the UK due to materially weaker growth prospects over the next few years, with risks skewed to the downside. Any further abrupt economic or fiscal deterioration would put into question the government's ability to place the debt burden on a downward trajectory by fiscal year 2015-16.

2.) Although the UK is outside the euro area, the high risk of further shocks (economic, financial, or political) within the currency union are exerting negative pressure on the UK's Aaa rating given the country's trade and financial links with the euro area. Overall, Moody's believes that the considerable uncertainty over the prospects for institutional reform in the euro area and the region's weak macroeconomic outlook will continue to weigh on already fragile market confidence across Europe.

Concurrently, Moody's has today also changed to negative the outlook on the Aaa debt rating of the Bank of England in line with the change of outlook on the UK's sovereign rating.

The UK's Aaa rating could potentially be downgraded if Moody's were to conclude that debt metrics are unlikely to stabilise within the next 3-4 years, with the deficit, the overall debt burden and/or debt-financing costs continuing on a rising trend. This could happen in one of three scenarios, all of which would imply lower economic and/or government financial strength: (1) a combination of significantly slower economic growth over a multi-year time horizon -- perhaps due to persistent private-sector deleveraging and very weak growth in Europe -- and reduced political commitment to fiscal consolidation, including discretionary fiscal loosening or a failure to respond to a deteriorating fiscal outlook; (2) a sharp rise in debt-refinancing costs, possibly associated with an inflation shock or a deterioration in market confidence over a sustained period; or (3) renewed problems in the banking sector that force a resumption of official support programmes and spill over into the real economy, indirectly causing lower growth and larger budget deficits.
Conversely, the rating outlook could return to stable if the combination of less adverse macroeconomic conditions, progress towards containing the euro area crisis and deficit reduction measures were to ease medium-term uncertainties with regards to the country's debt trajectory.