mercoledì 21 luglio 2010

Anche Bernanke è "insolitamente incerto"...

I coca-cow-boys si aspettavano l'annuncio immediato di qualche nuovo ed eccitante doping da parte della FED...
Invece, nella sua audizione alla commissione del Senato, Bernanke
ha fatto promesse molto generiche (del resto ha quasi finito le cartucce...)
ed ha presentato un grigio quadro di estrema incertezza,
con re-stocking ed effetto degli stimoli in fase di evanescenza,
con disoccupazione elevata per chissàquantoancora
e con settore immobiliare assai fragile.
«Le prospettive economiche degli Stati Uniti restano insolitamente incerte», ha detto il presidente della Fed, Ben Bernanke, nel corso dell'audizione semestrale alla commissione Bancaria del Senato su economia e politica monetaria.

«La banca centrale - ha detto Bernanke - interverrà ancora a sostegno dell'economia, se le condizioni dovessero richiederlo».......

In che modo? Boh? Non pervenuto....

La Federal Reserve è pronta a prendere delle ulteriori misure in caso l'economia statunitense dovesse rallentare significativamente o ricadere nella recessione......
Insomma anche Bernanke vede che la possibilità di ricaduta in Recessione Double-Dip è una possibilità CONCRETA..

La Borsa USA NON ha gradito...ed ha reagito così (per ora):

Ecco un riassunto in inglese dei punti chiave dell'intervento di Bernake.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke presents the central bank’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate today.
In his prepared testimony, he didn’t offer any new steps to support the economy but said that with an uncertain economic outlook, Fed officials “remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed.”
Key points from the prepared remarks:
Overall Economy:

The expansion is “proceeding at a moderate pace.”
The good: Demand from businesses and households is rising. Business investment is up. Stronger exports are supporting manufacturing growth.
The bad: Fiscal stimulus and inventory restocking will provide less support than they did before.
Housing and commercial construction remain weak.
A weak job market is holding down household spending.
Most Fed policymakers expect GDP growth of 3% to 3.5% in 2010, then 3.5% to 4.5% in 2011 and 2012. Labor Market:

The pace of private payroll growth in the first half of 2010 — 100,000 a month on average — is “insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.”
Restoring the 8.5 million lost jobs from 2008 and 2009 will require “a significant amount of time.”
Under the Fed’s latest projections, progress in reducing unemployment “is now expected to be somewhat slower than we previously projected.” The unemployment rate is expected to be between 7% and 7.5% at the end of 2012.

Inflation has remained low and underlying inflation has trended down for two years. Slack in the economy has damped wage and price pressures, while productivity has reduced labor costs. The Fed expects inflation to average 1% in 2010 and remain low through 2012.
Financial system:
Financial conditions “have become less supportive of economic growth in recent months” due to concerns about euro-zone deficits. In the U.S. banking system, lending standards remain tight with a high volume of troubled loans on banks’ books.
But loss rates on most loans seem to be peaking and bank capital ratios (in the aggregate) have risen to new highs.

Fed policy outlook:

As stated after the June meeting, “economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”
Key concluding message: “Of course, even as the Federal Reserve continues prudent planning for the ultimate withdrawal of extraordinary monetary policy accommodation, we also recognize that the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain. We will continue to carefully assess ongoing financial and economic developments, and we remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return to full utilization of our nation’s productive potential in a context of price stability.”