martedì 2 giugno 2020

USA: espansione monetaria in stile argentino...

Mi ero persino dimenticato di citare il mio post profetico di qualche mese fa... ma chissenefrega :-)

In USA è in atto un'Espansione Monetaria in "stile argentino"...
mai vista prima nella storia americana
(ed anche iper-concentrata nell'unità di tempo).
Dove finirà tutta questa "roba"?
(Ulteriore)(Iper)Asset Inflation?
(secondo me la seconda che ho detto😆).

Siamo sempre più in territorio inesplorato
ma le occasioni vanno colte pragmaticamente senza fare tanta ideologia...
magari bella come principi
ma INEFFICACE per cavalcare in modo vincente trend e mercati.

Qui la mia audio analisi di qualche giorno fa:

Tradare le Banche Centrali... Nunc et semper

da Monetary expansion Argentina-style

....In the 3 months leading up to May 11th (latest data available), the M2 measure of the US money supply has increased at an 82% annualized rate.....and these numbers will go higher in the next week or two.
This is serious, Argentine-style money growth.
The big question now is whether so much monetary expansion will give us Argentine-style inflation....

N.D.R. del resto è solo logico e di buonsenso = hai pompato di tutto a livello di Banche Centrali per riempire un vuoto ALLUCINANTE da Crisi Covid-19 che ha bloccato le economie, le società e le persone ad una rapidità incredibile...
Dunque la massa immessa da FED BoE BCE etc etc etc per ora ha solo riempito quel VUOTO.
Se con la ripartenza (sempre che il virus stia svanendo come pare) le BC toglieranno rapidamente liquidità, allora non avrai INFLAZIONE ma per un certo periodo ASSET INFLATION, anche solo perchè i mercati scommettono che ormai le BC intervengano SEMPRE in modo massiccio e quasi coordinato ad ogni Crisi e dunque BOOM!

Ma lo spiego bene nel mio audio

.....I've been an avid student of monetary policy and inflation ever since I spent four years living in Argentina in the late 1970s.
Back then, inflation averaged about 125% per year, and during a visit to the country in the mid-1980s
I was fascinated to watch hyperinflation unfold: prices almost tripled within the span of three weeks.
In 2015 I wrote a post on the subject of inflation and Argentina, in which I explained that the conditions in Argentina that allowed a huge increase in inflation didn't exist in the U.S., despite the Fed's massive expansion of its balance sheet and the creation of trillions of dollars of bank reserves.
Unlike the US, the government of Argentina relies on direct printing of money to finance its deficit, whereas the U.S. government finances .....................
its deficit by selling bills, notes and bonds.

When the Argentine government needs to finance a budget shortfall, it can "borrow" money directly from its central bank in exchange for an IOU, which in practice is never repaid.
In essence, the Argentine central bank simply runs the printing presses whenever the government needs money, and the government pays its bills with monopoly money.
Will the same happen to the US?
I sincerely doubt it, but it's not impossible......

....The key feature of the US monetary system is that the Fed can not create money directly—only banks can do that. The Fed can, however, make it easier for banks to create money by increasing the supply of bank reserves.
Banks need reserves in order to collateralize their deposits.
The Fed creates reserves by buying securities (e.g., Treasury bills, notes and bonds, and more recently, mortgage-backed securities and some corporate bonds).
In effect, the Fed buys securities and pays for them with bank reserves.
But crucially, reserves are not money that can be spent anywhere.
The Fed simply swaps reserves for notes and bonds, thus transmogrifying longer-term securities into short-term, risk-free securities. Reserves have become equivalent to T-bills, since they are default-free and pay a floating rate of interest.....

In times of great uncertainty and surging money demand, like today, the Fed fills the market's need for short-term safe securities by buying riskier securities and paying for them with risk-free reserves.
If banks don't want to hold the reserves they can use them to support increased lending, which indeed does result in a monetary expansion.
But if that expansion exceeds the market's demand for money, then higher inflation will be the result.
The fact that inflation so far has not risen is proof that the Fed's actions have not been inflationary. Excess reserves—which now total $3.2 trillion—have served to satisfy the banking system's demand for risk-free, short-term assets, and more recently to satisfy the public's demand for a massive increase in bank savings deposits and checking accounts.... which in turn has been turbo-charged by all the uncertainties and disruptions caused by the Covid-19 panic...

....Looking ahead, the most important question becomes, "
What happens when the Covid uncertainties decline and the demand for risk-free assets declines?"
If the Fed does not reverse course in a timely manner (e.g., by selling notes and bonds and extinguishing bank reserves), then we will find ourselves flooded with unwanted money.

And as Argentina has demonstrated, that can lead to a big increase in inflation..............