mercoledì 10 febbraio 2010

Bidibi bodibi bu ed il Deficit greco mi schizza su: dal 12.2% al 16%

vedi aggiornamento a fondo articolo

smentita del Ministro Finanza Greco
errata corrige (parziale) di GS

Il percorso virtuoso della Grecia che ha promesso di tagliare il mitico deficit/PIL dal 12,xx% al 3% entro il 2013 inizia nel "migliore" dei modi.
Ecco via zerohedge un " Rumors BOMBA" di Goldman Sach's che porterebbe alla REVISIONE del deficit greco 2009 dal 12.2% al 16%!
La fonte dei dati risulta essere nientepopodimeno che il Sito Web del Ministero Greco delle Finanze: a dicembre risulterebbe una spesina EXTRA non giustificata (per ora) da 11.8 miliardi di euro...Ooops....
Già PRIMA non ci credeva nessuno ai mitologici propositi di Papandreou per la riduzione del deficit ellenico...
ADESSO poi....diventa una farsa ben poco amusante.
Attendiamo conferme/smentite "ufficiali" da parte del Governo Greco.

A questo punto mi torna più chiaro il possibile intervento di salvataggio di Germania & soci, non ancora definito nè certo...i rumors si rincorrono senza sosta: pare che sia necessario far passare l'approvazione del bailout attraverso strani consessi chiamati "Parlamenti"...
Brutta bestia la Democrazia! (tra parentesi inventata 2500 anni fa proprio ad Atene).
Vedi news di zerohedge sotto incollata e TARP 2.0: German Parliament Trying To Stop The Greece Bailout
German newspaper Handelsblatt is reporting that Germany's parliament has concluded that many forms of financial aid for Greece would be in violation of European Union rules....

Per vedere l'ipotetico ruolo di Goldman "piovra" Sach's anche nel "caso Grecia"...ed i suoi swaps ellenici taroccati...

Oltre alla possibile revisione al rialzo del Deficit, leggete bene anche l'ottima analisi dei limiti ed impedimenti del possibile Bailout della Grecia (per chi sa l'inglese).

Grece's 2009 Budget Deficit Was Just Revised From 12.2% To 16% Of GDP
Goldman's Erik Nielsen lands the bombshell that the Greek deficit mysteriously increased from €29.4 billion to a shopping €37.9 (keep in mind, this is not Bernanke notation where only quad- prefixes impress people at this point).

This increases the (running) 2009 budget deficit from 12.2% to 16%!

While certainly not the last time we hear of "prior revisions", the question of just how patient Germany will be, should this number approach, oh say, 50% once the artificial support of various Goldman swaps expires (and at 50% the BSDs like Goldman will surely round up to 100%), is very much open.

From Goldman's Erik Nielsen

Big revision up in their 2009 fiscal deficit: Late yesterday, the Greek finance ministry amended its website for its 2009 fiscal cash execution, adding close to EUR 6bn to expenditures in December for a total of EUR 11.8bn, which takes the full-year deficit to EUR 37.9bn - up from EUR 29.4bn reported previously. This implies an increase in their 2009 central government budget deficit from about 12.2% of GDP to about 16% of GDP.

There has been made no explanation for this revision, but we think it may be associated with payment of arrears to hospitals, which means that the general government deficit may have increased by less.
Regardless, given the uncertainties, it is a stunning revision to make to the December payments without an explanation.
Hopefully, it’s a good use of money, like clearance of arrears, but it would be good to know.

Latest thought on tomorrow's summit: Meanwhile, rumours are all around with respect to a possible bail-out package from the EU.
My view remain the same, namely that money will be made available eventually, if needed (probably by end of March), although I hope they get comfortable with their estimate of how big the whole is that they need to fill.
Importantly, however, I don't think they are ready to commit yet.
Therefore, tomorrow's summit is likely to be somewhat disappointing for the market because the political leaders are unlikely to agree to more than some guidelines for how a rescue plan might take place.
A firm commitment is virtually impossible, partly for the reason that bilateral lending would have to be approved by the national parliaments, if it goes beyond small amounts inside their cash holdings for a very short term.
And this process has not yet started in any of the countries, although the German finance ministers is reported to have been speaking with the conservative fraction in the German parliament this morning.
I believe that outstanding issues include (1) the size of the loan or guarantee (I think something like EUR20bn is likely); (2) burden sharing between the other Euro-zone countries (Germany and France will be the heavyweights but other Euro-zone countries will surely participate as well); (3) the terms of the money (I expect it'll be short term, maybe 6 months with a decent spread); and (4) conditionality (tough, including specific commitments to do still more if execution should fall short of estimates.) Whether they'll agree on all this tomorrow, I rather doubt - and I very much doubt that we'll get anything like this degree of details in their statement. But then again, a statement of "conditional support in principle" might be enough to sustain this rally. We shall see.

Nel frattempo i rumors sul Default di Dubai tornano in auge...
... si e' tornato a parlare di Dubai World, la holding finanziaria dell'emirato che lo scorso 25 novembre aveva scosso i mercati chiedendo il congelamento di debiti per $26 miliardi. Avrebbe intenzione di chiedere ufficialmente ai creditori di congelare $22 miliardi di debito questo mese, fino a che non avra' completato la ristrutturazione...

Aggiornamento delle 18.45

Smentita del Ministro delle Finanze Greco
Greece Finance Ministry Official Denies Budget Deficit Explosion, Says "Goldman Misunderstood Data"

Errata Corrige (parziale) di Goldman Sachs
Goldman's Greek Budget Deficit Mea Culpa. On The Dot
...I reported the publication of the central government cash deficit of EUR 37.9bn (about 16% of GDP) in 2009, but by using the word "increase" compared with the previously reported deficit (on an accrual basis) of EUR 29.4bn (about 12.2% of GDP) (and the word "revision" in the subject line), I may mistakenly have led some to believe that the previously reported number had been changed to a new and higher number - when indeed I made comparisons between the numbers on the different definitions. (Cash is cash; while Eurostat cares about the accrual definition.) I still find it difficult to understand why the cash deficit would have been so much higher than the previously reported deficit on an accrual basis; hopefully, this will be clarified in coming days....

Rimane comunque un problema di trasparenza e di credibilità da parte delle statistiche e delle previsioni greche sui conti pubblici.
Ormai è un classico...che getta ombre lunghe sui conti pubblici ellenici (e non solo...).
Con tutte le "bufale" made in Atene sui bilanci pubblici, difficile ormai fidarsi....
vedi 40 miliardi più...40 miliardi meno...

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