venerdì 30 settembre 2011

Goldman Sachs fa la pessimista

La satanica Goldman Sachs, detta anche il puparo della finanza mondiale, sta facendo uscire dei report macro-economici ben poco incoraggianti.
Il problema è che GS dice le cose che veramente contano solo nei Report Riservati,
mentre quelli pubblici hanno un tasso di affidabilità del 50%: infatti, a seconda dei suoi interessi occulti, Goldman potrebbe dichiarare A perchè pensa A ma potrebbe anche dichiarare A perchè pensa a Z...

Tutto quello che viene da Satana va tenuto in debito conto
ma allo stesso tempo va preso con le pinze.
Crisi: Goldman Sachs, Probabilita' Recessione Eurozona Salite Fino a 60%
30 set - Le probabilita' di una nuova recessione nell'Eurozona sono in aumento.
E' quanto scrivonogli economisti di Goldman Sachs. Gli indicatori rilevati nelle inchieste mensili ...

Goldman Sachs Analyst Index fell below the 50 mark (more analysts see contraction than expansion) for the first time since AUG09
The Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) fell below the 50 mark for the first time since August 2009, dropping 8.3 points to 43.3 in September.
The new orders index
registered the largest decline in the history of the GSAI, plummeting 22.5 points to 28.6. ................
A sharp downswing in the orders vs. inventories gap, weak reports for all other component indexes, and analyst commentaries further point to a subdued growth outlook. Inflation risks remain low as price indexes dropped......
Invece un secondo studio di Goldman Sachs, analizzando un campione di dati dall'ampiezza di ben 150 anni, considera probabile al 40% che stia per verificarsi una Grande Stagnazione.
Basandosi su un'ampia casistica del passato, le Stagnazioni sono più frequenti di quanto si creda e la situazione attuale caratterizzata da una Crisi Finanziaria rende la Stagnazione assai più probabile della norma.
La carenza di dati affidabili rende difficile capire quale siano state le strategie migliori per far uscire le Economie dalle Grandi Stagnazioni.
Invece si possono identificare delle chiare correlazioni sulle Cause delle Stagnazioni: Stock-market crashes, currency crises, external debt crises and a higher income level raise that probability.
Goldman Sachs: 40% Chance of "Great Stagnation" in Developed Markets (CNBC)
Having analyzed 150 years of macroeconomic data, Goldman has found 20 examples of stagnation similar to those experienced by Japan in the 1990’s, most of which occurred during the last 60 years in developed economies.
- “During these episodes, GDP per capita growth hovers below 1 percent and is less volatile than usual.
They are also characterized by low inflation, rising and sticky unemployment, stagnant home prices, and lower stock returns,” Jose Ursua, an economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a research note on Thursday.
- He predicts a 40 percent chance of stagnation in the world's developed markets.
- “Stagnations are more likely than you would like.

Because these events are correlated with financial crises, the conditional probability of stagnation in the current environment is higher than normal," he said.

“Trends in Europe and the US are so far still following growth paths typical of stagnations.”

- In order to avoid such an outcome, Ursua said, requires governmental policy that restores confidence and growth.
“Whether these countries manage to avoid a ‘Great Stagnation’ by a pick-up in the recovery is likely to depend on policy being able to restore confidence and putting in place reforms that can decisively jolt growth,” he said.

A lack of reliable data makes it difficult to know what sorts of policy remedies have helped pull economies out of stagnation in the past, he said, but there is a clear correlation on what causes stagnation.

“Stock-market crashes, currency crises, external debt crises and a higher income level raise that probability.

Twin crises, higher growth or higher volatility lower that probability, either because they signal a worse outcome or a better outcome, not a stagnation,” Ursua said.
- “The good news is that policymakers are more aware—thanks to Japan’s experience—of at least a part of that historical experience, if not all that we present here," he said.
- “The bad news is that it is still far from clear whether enough has been done to jolt economic growth upwards and outside the zone where prolonged stagnation is a serious risk."