Vi incollo brutalmente dal BLOG del "vecchio Scotty" (ovvero del mio coca-cow-boys preferito) ben 24 grafici positivi (secondo Lui) sull'Economia USA.
Vediamo CHI riesce a guardarseli tutti, con le dottissime spiegazioni annesse (Scott indubbiamente ha una preparazione di ferro).
Una ventata di ottimismo non può che farci bene.
Peccato però che il vecchio "Scott" perda un po' di vista le nuove Evoluzioni Strutturali portate alla ribalta dalla Grande Crisi....che hanno reso quantomeno "instabili" i vecchi "schemi interpretativi economici" ben rappresentati da questi 24 grafici.
Basta che salti una manciata di mutui subprime nell'Alabama....
o che la miccia del piccolo Bahrain accenda la polveriera dell'Arabia Saudita...
o che qualche PIIGS grufoli di traverso...
e tutto il bel compitino del vecchio "Scott" supportato da tutti questi bei Grafici potrebbe andare a farsi fottere....
Nel qual caso le due dozzine di grafici bullish potrebbero rapidamente convertirsi in due dozzine di grafici bearish....
Se vuoi vedere i 24 grafici bullish, clicca su continua a leggere
Two dozen bullish charts
It was meant to counteract all the concerns at the time that the U.S. economy was headed for a double-dip recession, caused in no small part by the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. In retrospect, my timing couldn't have been better, since equity markets have rallied strongly since their lows at the end of August.
As we now face another source of concern with the political turmoil in the Middle East and rising oil prices, I thought it might be helpful to review those same charts plus a few others. As should be evident, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong, and this is good reason to expect that the economy will continue to push ahead in spite of the headwinds it faces.
Business investment rose 16% last year. Strong capex spending points to growing confidence on the part of business, and that is a leading indicator of future growth in the economy.
Industrial production is rising all over the world. Adverse weather resulted in a modest slowdown in U.S. production in recent months, but production was up 8% in the Eurozone last year, and 5% in Japan. There is still plenty of idle capacity in world manufacturing that can be put to work quickly and cheaply as demand rebounds.
Commodity prices continue to rise across the board, though agricultural commodities appear to have hit a speed bump the past few days. Rising prices reflect strong growth in global demand and/or accommodative monetary policies worldwide. Whatever the case, rising commodity prices all but preclude a bout of debilitating deflation, and rule out the existence of a double-dip recession.
Global trade continues to expand. U.S. exports surged at a 17.6% annualized pace in the second half of last year.
Credit spreads have been reliable leading indicators of recessions in the past, and tighter spreads usually signal improving economic conditions. U.S. credit spreads are now at their tightest levels since the end of the recent recession, confirming that economic fundamentals continue to improve. Swap spreads are good indicators of systemic risk and leading indicators of future economic and financial conditions. U.S. swap spreads have been quite low and stable for the past six months, an indication that U.S. financial fundamentals are about as healthy as they can get. Europe remains troubled, however, but Euro swap spreads are not high enough to signal anything more than the likelihood that there will be some form of sovereign debt default in Europe before this is all over, and even should that happen, it is not likely to bring down the Eurozone economy.