giovedì 9 settembre 2010
Agli "amanti" della Borsa
A chi ama la Borsa, a chi la concupisce tutti i giorni, a chi la considera uno specchio fedele della realtà ed un oracolo sul futuro dell'economia
(anche se QUI, come ben sapete, parliamo sostanzialmente di ALTRO)
Prima di tutto un imperdibile e "verosimile" paradosso da coca-cow-boys e da filosofi della "crescita infinita".
Per meglio capire come ragionano "quei signori" di Wallstreet.
Siamo in double-dip; è una buona notizia.
I mercati presto torneranno a concentrarsi sulla ripresa.
We’re in the double dip; that’s good news Markets will soon start to focus on the recovery
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book pretty much confirmed it, in case anyone was still unsure.
The long-feared double-dip is here.
Poi questa bellissima "news di pretesto" strombazzata ieri.
Nella nuova semantica introdotta dalla Grande Crisi,
in merito alle aste dei titoli di stato "successo" ha assunto il significato di "non andare deserta" (anche perchè ormai la domanda è strettamente "telecomandata"...)
Che poi ci si debba SVENARE sul rendimento del bond decennale dal 4% al 6% circa, è cosa assolutamente trascurabile...
Le aste di bonds del Portogallo hanno avuto successo.
Lisbona ha potuto collocare obbligazioni a tre anni per €661 milioni e a dieci anni per €378 milioni.
La domanda ha superato l'offerta di 1,9 volte.
Il Portogallo ha dovuto offrire però degli interessi più alti di quelli delle ultime aste.
Il tasso d'interesse delle obbligazioni a tre anni è salito rispetto all'asta precedente dal 3,597% al 4,086%, quello delle obbligazioni a dieci anni dal 4,171% al 5,973%.
La notizia del positivo andamento delle aste di bonds del Portogallo ha tranquillizzato i mercati.
Lo spread tra i titoli di Stato portoghesi e quelli tedeschi si è ridotto, le borse europee hanno ridotto significativamente le loro perdite..
E per finire vi lascio con questo interessatissimo articolo che v'incollo papale papale in inglese.
Interessantissimo per gli amanti di Borsa naturalmente.
Devo ammettere che la sua cinica e spietata "dimostrazione" di come la Borsa Americana possa essere TORO anche con l'Economia in Recessione mi ha (quasi) convinto.
Il che per il 99% dei cittadini potrebbe non essere necessariamente una bella cosa...;-)
Sostanzialmente nell'alveo dei miei passati articoli
- Dow Jones a 20.000, con qualche "piiiiiccola" controindicazione...
- E facciamo 'sto Oroscopo...
- Ci stanno sostituendo (od almeno ci stanno provando...)
- Ormai del consumatore americano non gliene frega più un cazzo a nessuno (o quasi) (DA NON PERDERE)
Why This Is a Sustainable Rally and We Are in a Bull Marketdi Michael James McDonald
For the last two months, the majority of the writers at SeekingAlpha have been pretty bearish. The reasons for their positions are varied, but it often surrounds the principal that the economy is weakening and you can’t have a bull market in a receding economy.
However, this “no bull market in a recession” concept is no longer always true.
Now, under the right conditions, you can actually develop a strong American bull market, even if the America economy continues in a recession.
It’s one of the consequences of globalization.
Why We Have a Long, Bull Market Ahead
The positive benefits of extremely low interest rates and growing, doubly amplified foreign earnings is much greater than the negative disadvantage of low or declining earnings from the domestic economy.
The obsessive focus on only the American economy, when it now accounts for less than 50% of earnings to the American stock market, is a major mis-evaluation leading to forecasting errors.
This situation should continue to drive prices higher for sometime.
It’s very important for investors to understand what has changed and why this is now true.
To gain that understanding we must go back to some “basics” concepts and then do some “rethinking.
”The “Time Value of Money” Is Basic
The “time value” of money is the fundamental theory behind all asset pricing including stocks. According to theory there are only two factors that determine stock prices – earnings and interest rates.
The theory says that a stock’s price today should equal the “present value” of all that company’s future earnings.
That’s where interest rates enter the picture; you use current interest rates to calculate the present value (the value today) of all those forecasted future earnings. Then you add them all up and that’s the theoretical “price” of a stock.
The form of the “Present Value” equations makes the following statements true.
If interest rates go up, all the present values, and therefore the sum, get smaller. If rates go down, the present values and sum all get larger. T
his change in “theoretical prices” when interest rates change can be substantial.
For example, if rates go from 4% to 2% the sum of all the present values could rise 20% or more.
This is significant and shows that interest rates are just as important as earnings in determining stock prices.
If interest rates and earnings are of equal importance in what stocks do, is there some “ideal mathematical combination” between the two that produces the highest, theoretical price for stocks?
Yes there is. It’s when earnings are growing very rapidly and interest rates are extremely low.
However, this ideal combination seldom if ever occurs for an interesting reason.
The “Ideal Combination” for Stocks
Economic growth and interest rates generally work against each other.
When earnings growth is high it’s usually when the economy is strong but that produces high interest rates.
Likewise, when earnings growth is poor, it’s usually when the economy is weak which creates low interest rates.
The “ideal combination” in a sense is prohibited.
However, the global economy is changing this and we now can at times get it.
Over half of the earnings of the S&P 500 now come from overseas operations and the growth and outlook on that is very positive.
This is the point where new rules apply. The high growth rate of foreign economies do put upward pressure on American interest rates and it’s American interest rates you use when doing the present value calculations. you can now get low interest rates and high earnings growth – at least for earnings from foreign operations.
But it seems to also come at a price.
Low American interest rates are here because the American economy is weak.
We’re not getting growth from the other 50% of earnings, the earnings of domestic operations.
That’s important but there is one final factor that somewhat negates this loss.
It negates it by mathematically magnifying the positive effects of foreign earnings growth to cover it.
The factor is the US dollar.
The Magnifying Effect of a Dollar Decline
The huge trade deficit puts continual downward pressure on the dollar; now low interest rates should add to it.
Many are forecasting a long, slow dollar decline.
If so that will increase foreign earnings growth even more.
A lower dollar magnifies the “growth” of foreign earnings because a lower exchange rate converts those foreign earnings into even more dollars.
A 20% drop in the dollar gives a 20% bonus increase to foreign earnings. T
his bonus increase is about equal to four years of 5% growth in Domestic earnings.
The New View
I’m aware that this is a different view of things.
Most still consider and evaluate the American stock market against the old standards - GDP, housing, unemployment, etc.
However, I believe these old standards no longer accurately apply to the structure of today’s economy and stock market.
The recent plunge in interest rates caught most professional investors, large and small off guard.
But these people recover quickly and are now reassessing what it means. I’m sure many of them are doing calculations similar to the basic ideas outlined here on many assets including stocks.
Once they asses the positives of it, it won’t be long before they act, which should drive prices higher.The public, however, is a different issue.
They are not positioned to understand this change, or even if they do, accept it.
It almost sounds un-American. So they will probably “stay cautious” and be mystified as prices move higher while the economy stays depressed.
Eventually, at some future date, they will finally give in, producing the bull market’s final advancing phase like they usually do.
Two weeks ago I finally called an end to my now ten year forecast of a trading range stock market. That’s now history and a fact - but it’s over.
It ended March 2009 and I believe we are now into a multiyear bull market and its economic underpinnings are this new global view.